Foreign Visitors in Brazil - 2005 to 2015 - Part III
This is the conclusion of the study on our beloved "gringos".
In order to better understand the big picture, we analyse the distribution of total visitors per continent per access method. The first impression is that if visitors enter Brazil by air more than twice they enter by land, if we see continents individually, South America has almost the same number of visitors in both access methods. One interesting point we can see in this graph is the large number of europeans entering Brazil by land.
We will further study the two continents with the most visitors: Europe and South America. The next graph shows which countries in South America visits Brazil the most. Our “hermanos” from Argentina won this one.
The next graph attempts to correlate countries from South America and the Brazilian State they used to enter Brazil, per year, all done by land. The scale had to be enlarged to make some details visible. Arrivals equals to zero have been removed from the graph, to make it cleaner. As expected, visitors arrive in the state closest to the border between the countries. Because the difference in numbers between countries was too big, I used the sqrt function on the number of arrivals, so it is possible to see the smaller values. Here we have some interesting facts: Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia and Guiana changed the State they enter Brazil since 2014. Also, some argentinians are entering Brazil from Roraima, a State on the northern border. Why would they travel that far?
Appplying the same criteria for visitors that arrived by air, we notice the large majority entered Brazil in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Also, it seems that international flights to Roraima started only in 2014, since there are no records before that. Visitors from Guiana and Guiana Francesa dropped drastically around 2009. Overall, there is an increase in visitors by air.
The next two graphs are an attempt to do the previous analysis but from european visitors. Europe has more countries, so it would be really messy to create a large list of graphs. The idea on the next graphs is that each pair state-country has a dot. This dot is composed of may rings: the outer ring is the year 2005 and the inner dot represents 2015. The color of each ring is a gradient representing the number of visitors, where red meand the most and blue the least. So, red dots means lots of visitors, purple dots average, blue dots means few visitors. If the inside of the circle is more red, it means the number of visitors is increasing. If the outer ring is more red, it means it is decreasing.
The two graphs correlates which european countries come to each Brazilian state using two access methods: by air and by land. Also, it has a way to use color to show both how many visitors are coming, so we can compare which country has the most visitors, but also how it is changing over the last 10 years.
Looking at the graph of air arrivals, we notice Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are the states with most visitors, and Germany, France, Italy, Portugal and Spain the countries that sent most visitors to Brazil. This is achieved by looking which row or column has the most red or purple-ish color. By looking at the color of the rings, we notice a small change from all those countries over the years from Sao Paulo to Rio de Janeiro, most noticeable in France and Italy. Also, using the same ring color parameter, we notice a decrease in visitors from portuguese visitors to the northeastern states, and that the only state which seems to have had an increase in visitors in the last years is Rio de Janeiro.
The graph of land entries of Europeans seemed odd to me at first but made sense after a few google searches. We notice a massive flux of visitors entering Brazil by land in the state of Parana, and it can be explained by people doing road trips, mostly hitchhiking, through all South America (those Europeans have no idea of the danger, really…) and a famous route enters Brazil through Parana because of Iguazu Falls, the largest waterfall system in the world.
The following graphs from this analysis will be done using real maps to plot flux of visitors. This is something I wanted to learn since a long time ago, and now it seems the perfect opportunity. First we have the land entries for South American visitors as a connection from the country they came to the state they entered. This graph took a really long time and effort to be produced but it was really satisfactory because it shows a lot of things happening in latin america over the last 10 years. So the thickness of the line segment is proportional to the number of arrivals. The transparency is set to 0.5, and the the color of each line varies depending on the year from red to blue. So if arrivals are about the same through the 10 years, we should see a purple line, but if they changed we see a countour with the color of the year with the largest value. From this graph we learn that our neighbours from Argentina are traveling entering more recently by land in Rio Grande do Sul and Parana, whereas our neighbours from Uruguay seem to have used this access more often in the past because of the blueish colour. It is important to remember that this does not mean this state is their final destination, just their entrance in the country.
This plot is interesting because it might indicate how different the south is in terms of integration with the rest of South America. The vast majority of entries happen on the three southern most states, and this has important social and economical results in those regions.
It is also possible to notice that the north state of Roraima and Acre started receiving visitors recently. Google could not answer why it happened, so by looking at our data, we don´t have registries previous to 2014, what suggest the government probably used to put them in the “Other Federation States” category (yes, that level of chaos is called Brazilian government).
Finally, last but not least, we have an image showing the accumulated arrivals over 10 years per state, separated per continent. This is interesting to see how the different regions of Brazil has indeed a different kind of visitor. North and Northeast is a more touristic region, with tropical sunny beaches, and indeed attract more european visitors, even in absolute numbers. The south seems to receive more south americans, probably from Argentina from what we have seem so far.
Next thing to be analysed is the seasonality of international visitors. First we verify how each continent contributed over the 10 year interval.
There are clearly three main players in foreign visitors in Brazil: North America, Europe and South America. However, we wish to learn about seasonality, therefore we must see the distribution of visits along the years, in each month. This can be seen on the graph below.
The outlier on June for every continent happened during the World cup of 2014. But besides that, we can observe some interesting points: Asia and North America appear to have more evenly distributed visitors, which suggests more a professional nature of the visits (not tourism). Europe and South America, on the other hand, seems to have more visitors during summer time.
It is noticeable a huge difference between South America arrivals and the rest of the world. For this reason, we can already skip a few steps in this case and use information of previous graphs about which states receive the most foreign visitors from South America by Land and make a smaller list.
In addition to the map that correlates States and Countries, it provides an intereting insight about land access to Brazil: it happens mainly through the States of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul and happens mostly for tourism (seasonaly).
As the last graph, a model to quantify which states are the most “internationalized” and most turistic is proposed. First, the absolute number of arrivals is no longer used, but instead it was replaced by which percentage of the State population it represents. This metric seems to make sense since a smaller State which receives lots of international visitors would be more apparent, whereas a large State which doesn´t increase it´s number of citizens during the holidays would not be that noticeable. To do this, another data source was needed, the population of each State, but unfortunately it is measured only every 10 years by our census. It is available on:
https://seriesestatisticas.ibge.gov.br/series.aspx?no=10&op=0&vcodigo=CD90&t=populacao-presente-residente
To make visualization easier, the 12 months were grouped in two main categories: warmer months and colder months. The idea behind this is the following: if we see how temperatures are distributed anually in a colder southern state such as Santa Catarina for instance, we notice that around november weather is already pretty nice to go to the beach, and it will be ok until around March.
Here´s some data from Wikipedia from my city, Balneário Camboriu, for an example:
Those two graphs are a model to represent which states receives the most international visitors as a percentage of the state population. This is measured by the size of the the dots. Other thing measured is which state is more subject to seasonality, which was measured dividing the months of the year in hot ones from October to March and cold ones being the rest. The dots also have alpha in their color, which means they are a bit transparent, and since mainly will be printed on top of each other, if we see a red predominant color it means most visits happened in the hot months, if the color is blue then it was in the cold months, and if it is purple there is no seasonality and they are distributed.Also, the size of the point is proportional to the percentage of number of arrivals compared to size of population of each state, hence bigger points means bigger percentages.
So, according to this model, the most international State (and it is important to remember that it doesn´t mean those visitors stayed in this state, maybe they were just passing by) is Rio Grande do Sul.
Some surprises happened here because I expected a bigger seasonality for Rio de Janeiro and not such a big one for Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul.
Another weird surprise happened in Amazonas, which seem to receive more visitors in the cold months, by a very slight difference.
A key point of this whole work was finding out how the lack of a decent road system in Brazil affects the whole south american continent. The huge difference between visitors on southern states and northern states is easily explained after a few google searches on the quality of roads on northern states. This could be one of the possible answers to the why so many visitors from Bolivia, Venezuela and Colombia come all the way south to Mato Grosso do Sul to enter Brazil by Land. Another option involve illegal recreational chemical substances and the largest city of Brazil being Sao Paulo (which places Mato Grosso in the middle), but let´s presume the inocence of our esteemed anonymous visitors who cannot even defend themselves with a nice excuse in this report, right?
Learning how to work with google maps was a bit difficult at first, and to be honest some aspects of it are still a mistery: building routes, getting time estimates, and even if any integration with street view is possible, for an example. But overall it was a rewarding experience.
In order to better understand the big picture, we analyse the distribution of total visitors per continent per access method. The first impression is that if visitors enter Brazil by air more than twice they enter by land, if we see continents individually, South America has almost the same number of visitors in both access methods. One interesting point we can see in this graph is the large number of europeans entering Brazil by land.
We will further study the two continents with the most visitors: Europe and South America. The next graph shows which countries in South America visits Brazil the most. Our “hermanos” from Argentina won this one.
The next graph attempts to correlate countries from South America and the Brazilian State they used to enter Brazil, per year, all done by land. The scale had to be enlarged to make some details visible. Arrivals equals to zero have been removed from the graph, to make it cleaner. As expected, visitors arrive in the state closest to the border between the countries. Because the difference in numbers between countries was too big, I used the sqrt function on the number of arrivals, so it is possible to see the smaller values. Here we have some interesting facts: Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia and Guiana changed the State they enter Brazil since 2014. Also, some argentinians are entering Brazil from Roraima, a State on the northern border. Why would they travel that far?
The next two graphs are an attempt to do the previous analysis but from european visitors. Europe has more countries, so it would be really messy to create a large list of graphs. The idea on the next graphs is that each pair state-country has a dot. This dot is composed of may rings: the outer ring is the year 2005 and the inner dot represents 2015. The color of each ring is a gradient representing the number of visitors, where red meand the most and blue the least. So, red dots means lots of visitors, purple dots average, blue dots means few visitors. If the inside of the circle is more red, it means the number of visitors is increasing. If the outer ring is more red, it means it is decreasing.
The two graphs correlates which european countries come to each Brazilian state using two access methods: by air and by land. Also, it has a way to use color to show both how many visitors are coming, so we can compare which country has the most visitors, but also how it is changing over the last 10 years.
Looking at the graph of air arrivals, we notice Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are the states with most visitors, and Germany, France, Italy, Portugal and Spain the countries that sent most visitors to Brazil. This is achieved by looking which row or column has the most red or purple-ish color. By looking at the color of the rings, we notice a small change from all those countries over the years from Sao Paulo to Rio de Janeiro, most noticeable in France and Italy. Also, using the same ring color parameter, we notice a decrease in visitors from portuguese visitors to the northeastern states, and that the only state which seems to have had an increase in visitors in the last years is Rio de Janeiro.
The graph of land entries of Europeans seemed odd to me at first but made sense after a few google searches. We notice a massive flux of visitors entering Brazil by land in the state of Parana, and it can be explained by people doing road trips, mostly hitchhiking, through all South America (those Europeans have no idea of the danger, really…) and a famous route enters Brazil through Parana because of Iguazu Falls, the largest waterfall system in the world.
The following graphs from this analysis will be done using real maps to plot flux of visitors. This is something I wanted to learn since a long time ago, and now it seems the perfect opportunity. First we have the land entries for South American visitors as a connection from the country they came to the state they entered. This graph took a really long time and effort to be produced but it was really satisfactory because it shows a lot of things happening in latin america over the last 10 years. So the thickness of the line segment is proportional to the number of arrivals. The transparency is set to 0.5, and the the color of each line varies depending on the year from red to blue. So if arrivals are about the same through the 10 years, we should see a purple line, but if they changed we see a countour with the color of the year with the largest value. From this graph we learn that our neighbours from Argentina are traveling entering more recently by land in Rio Grande do Sul and Parana, whereas our neighbours from Uruguay seem to have used this access more often in the past because of the blueish colour. It is important to remember that this does not mean this state is their final destination, just their entrance in the country.
It is also possible to notice that the north state of Roraima and Acre started receiving visitors recently. Google could not answer why it happened, so by looking at our data, we don´t have registries previous to 2014, what suggest the government probably used to put them in the “Other Federation States” category (yes, that level of chaos is called Brazilian government).
Finally, last but not least, we have an image showing the accumulated arrivals over 10 years per state, separated per continent. This is interesting to see how the different regions of Brazil has indeed a different kind of visitor. North and Northeast is a more touristic region, with tropical sunny beaches, and indeed attract more european visitors, even in absolute numbers. The south seems to receive more south americans, probably from Argentina from what we have seem so far.
Next thing to be analysed is the seasonality of international visitors. First we verify how each continent contributed over the 10 year interval.
There are clearly three main players in foreign visitors in Brazil: North America, Europe and South America. However, we wish to learn about seasonality, therefore we must see the distribution of visits along the years, in each month. This can be seen on the graph below.
The outlier on June for every continent happened during the World cup of 2014. But besides that, we can observe some interesting points: Asia and North America appear to have more evenly distributed visitors, which suggests more a professional nature of the visits (not tourism). Europe and South America, on the other hand, seems to have more visitors during summer time.
It is noticeable a huge difference between South America arrivals and the rest of the world. For this reason, we can already skip a few steps in this case and use information of previous graphs about which states receive the most foreign visitors from South America by Land and make a smaller list.
In addition to the map that correlates States and Countries, it provides an intereting insight about land access to Brazil: it happens mainly through the States of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul and happens mostly for tourism (seasonaly).
As the last graph, a model to quantify which states are the most “internationalized” and most turistic is proposed. First, the absolute number of arrivals is no longer used, but instead it was replaced by which percentage of the State population it represents. This metric seems to make sense since a smaller State which receives lots of international visitors would be more apparent, whereas a large State which doesn´t increase it´s number of citizens during the holidays would not be that noticeable. To do this, another data source was needed, the population of each State, but unfortunately it is measured only every 10 years by our census. It is available on:
https://seriesestatisticas.ibge.gov.br/series.aspx?no=10&op=0&vcodigo=CD90&t=populacao-presente-residente
To make visualization easier, the 12 months were grouped in two main categories: warmer months and colder months. The idea behind this is the following: if we see how temperatures are distributed anually in a colder southern state such as Santa Catarina for instance, we notice that around november weather is already pretty nice to go to the beach, and it will be ok until around March.
Here´s some data from Wikipedia from my city, Balneário Camboriu, for an example:
| Month | Year Average high °C (°F) | Daily mean °C (°F) | Average low °C (°F) |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan
|
29.0 (84.2)
|
24.2 (75.6)
|
19.8 (67.6)
|
Feb
|
28.8 (83.8)
|
24.1 (75.4)
|
19.6 (67.3)
|
Mar
|
28.3 (82.9)
|
23.5 (74.3)
|
18.7 (65.7)
|
Apr
|
25.8 (78.4)
|
20.8 (69.4)
|
15.8 (60.4)
|
May
|
23.8 (74.8)
|
18.4 (65.1)
|
13.1 (55.6)
|
Jun
|
22.1 (71.8)
|
16.7 (62.1)
|
11.3 (52.3)
|
Jul
|
21.3 (70.3)
|
15.8 (60.4)
|
10.4 (50.7)
|
Aug
|
21.5 (70.7)
|
16.5 (61.7)
|
11.6 (52.9)
|
Sep
|
22.1 (71.8)
|
17.8 (64)
|
13.6 (56.5)
|
Oct
|
23.7 (74.7)
|
19.5 (67.1)
|
15.3 (59.5)
|
Nov
|
25.4 (77.7)
|
21.0 (69.8)
|
16.6 (61.9)
|
Dec
|
27.3 (81.1)
|
22.7 (72.9)
|
18.2 (64.8)
|
Those two graphs are a model to represent which states receives the most international visitors as a percentage of the state population. This is measured by the size of the the dots. Other thing measured is which state is more subject to seasonality, which was measured dividing the months of the year in hot ones from October to March and cold ones being the rest. The dots also have alpha in their color, which means they are a bit transparent, and since mainly will be printed on top of each other, if we see a red predominant color it means most visits happened in the hot months, if the color is blue then it was in the cold months, and if it is purple there is no seasonality and they are distributed.Also, the size of the point is proportional to the percentage of number of arrivals compared to size of population of each state, hence bigger points means bigger percentages.
So, according to this model, the most international State (and it is important to remember that it doesn´t mean those visitors stayed in this state, maybe they were just passing by) is Rio Grande do Sul.
Another weird surprise happened in Amazonas, which seem to receive more visitors in the cold months, by a very slight difference.
Learning how to work with google maps was a bit difficult at first, and to be honest some aspects of it are still a mistery: building routes, getting time estimates, and even if any integration with street view is possible, for an example. But overall it was a rewarding experience.
If you have any doubts or suggestions, please do not hesitate to use the comments session below.
Cheers and if you ever visit Camboriu let´s have a beer together, mate!
Comments
Post a Comment